Do we have enough material to supply a circular economy — and is there anything brands can do in response? We analysed over 45 million waste objects for Closed Loop Partners’s Center for the Circular Economy to find out.
The spread of recycled content mandates, extended producer responsibility (EPR) and brand sustainability commitments means demand for plastics like recycled polypropylene (PP) is growing faster than supply. That’s especially true in the food service sector, where sourcing recycled food-grade material adds an extra layer of supply chain complexity.
It’s not clear that brands can rely on a steady supply: just 8% of the USA’s PP is recycled each year. An uncertain trade environment means that domestic recycling is more important than ever, while circular legislation in Canada, the UK and EU is increasing global competition for recycled plastics.
With those supply pressures in mind, we helped Closed Loop Partners’ Center for the Circular Economy find out:
- How much PP is potentially recyclable via recovery facilities
- What brands can do to improve PP supply
- Whether AI is accurate enough to help them do it
The results were published in the landmark ‘What’s in a Bale’ report, downloadable here.
About the research
To assess the current state of the recycled PP supply chain, we deployed our AI waste analytics system at four major materials recovery facilities (MRFs) across the USA — where they were also tested against human samplers for accuracy. Over 650 tons of material later, we had our answers.
Here’s what brands can take away from the most detailed-ever study of food-grade PP recycling 👇
1. There is an abundant supply of food-grade PP in waste streams
What our AI found:
Between 75% and 85% of the material our AI detected was clear or white PP — the most valuable format for recycling and reuse. Over 90% of that material was food-grade, which means it could potentially be used for food service packaging. By contrast, just 7 to 16% of coloured PP was food-grade.
What this means for brands:
There’s an immense amount of high-quality clear and white material on offer if recycling processes continue to improve. The low volume of food-grade coloured PP also suggests that meeting recycled content targets may require a shift to clear or white packaging.
The FDA reviews food-contact recycling on a case-by-case basis. Securing approval (and increasing supply) relies on data that proves the purity of recycled PP feedstock. By offering insight into the quality of recycled food-grade PP, that same data can create a more transparent relationship between material suppliers, packaging producers and brands.
Coupled with the financial incentive to use recycled content, the abundance of recyclable PP in today’s waste streams makes a business case for brands to help bolster supply:
2. Packaging producers can improve the recycled PP supply chain
What our AI found:
The vast majority of the PP objects that our AI detected was food and beverage packaging. Takeaway cups represented over 30% of clear PP, with lids, pots and tubs making up another 47%. The way those products are designed has a significant impact on their recovery rates.
What this means for brands:
Food service brands don’t have to wait on recycled food-grade PP supply chains to improve, because they’re part of those chains.
Brands can take direct action to boost supply:
- Increasing the availability of recyclable PP begins with the PP products that are put on the market. Packaging designed with recycling (very important including the sorting stage) in mind is more likely to get returned to the circular economy, so brands that embrace simplified or monomaterial packaging are actively contributing to the material they’ll buy in future.
- Using recycled content today will help the waste sector improve tomorrow’s recovery rates. Our AI recorded a 13% increase in sorted PP quality after one facility invested in more advanced sorting machinery. They can’t make a business case for those investments without knowing there’s a market for recycled material. Brands that are purchasing recycled content today are enabling recyclers to invest in better infrastructure, creating a steadier stream of high-quality PP.
- Larger brands are already investing directly in recycling facilities to protect their share of supply. We’ve seen it firsthand: Greyparrot Analyzer units are active in a polymer recycling facility built by Nestlé and Greenback, while Coca-Cola and Asahi have teamed up to fund one of Australia’s largest plastics recycling plants.
3. AI is accurate enough to track packaging performance at scale
What we found:
Aside from tracking recyclable PP, this project was designed to test the accuracy of AI waste analytics systems like Greyparrot Analyzer at scale.
We compared Analyzer data to manual PP detection for 30,000 objects. The results showed that it was just as accurate, and far faster: tracking the 45 million PP objects we detected in this study would have taken manual samplers four years. It took our system just three months to find millions of food service products in the waste stream:
What this means for brands:
AI waste analysis is now a reliable source of post-consumption packaging data. For brands, that means data driven decision-making can happen on a much shorter timescale.
Systems like Greyparrot Analyzer can track the performance of specific stock-keeping units (SKUs) as soon as they enter the waste stream — and on a regional or global scale.
With EPR and recycled content mandates incentivising recyclability, that data will have a direct impact on bottom lines. As brands make packaging design improvements at a state or national level, they’ll be able to measure the impact, and prove to regulators that their products are being recovered.
The business case for AI waste analytics
Demand for recycled food-grade PP is growing, but the ‘What’s in a Bale’ report tells a clear story: there’s plenty of material available if the circular supply chain becomes more efficient.
The availability and quality of recyclable food-grade PP is improving, especially as technology like AI waste analytics helps recovery facilities make a business case for sorting improvements.
The insights that arise from automated analysis — known as waste intelligence — don’t just point the way forward for MRFs, though. With more confidence in recycled content supplies, brands can start taking action on longer-term design changes today, and measure the results in real-world facilities.
Find out how we help the world’s largest brands track the recyclability of their products here, or download the full summary infographic below 👇
